Election 2015: Conservative Party

David Cameron has already announced that this will be the last general election into which he leads the Conservative Party (BBC, 2015{1}). With the vultures circling, that announcement may be the only thing that will keep him in office and safe from being toppled by his own party - so long as the Tories win, of course.

Another failure to win a majority would likely mean a premature end not just for Cameron, but also for his attempt at modernising the Conservative Party and for the senior positions held many of his allies. A majority would at least let Cameron see out his leadership in relative peace while his challengers fight amongst themselves for the right to lead the party into 2020.

Achieving that majority will mostly depend upon two things. First, that the public has been convinced that austerity was absolutely necessary. Second, that any future economic upsurge will - even if only in the form of trickle-down - be to some general benefit.

And that is going to be a hard sell.

Indications are that the attempt at modernising the Conservative Party - at least on the surface - has failed to rebrand the party in the eyes of the public. The party is still seen as the friend of the super-rich tax-dodger and uncaring about the public services upon which ordinary people rely (Tall, 2015).

It is not without good reason that this is the party's image.

Taking away the Liberal Democrat influence that brought about policies like the increase in the Personal Tax Allowance and the Pupil Premium, and restrained the worst Tory excesses, the Conservative government record has been dominated by two main themes: attacks upon welfare for the poorest and tax cuts benefiting the wealthiest (Eaton, 2014).

On welfare the party has been on the receiving end of stinging criticism. The Conservative cuts agenda has been criticised for having state support networks for the poorest and most vulnerable as its main target (Ryan, 2015). Its workfare programme was challenged in the courts (Malik, 2015). Its attempt to make cuts to housing benefit has been roundly condemned as a bedroom tax on the poorest (Butler, 2014).

The impact of these policies on the party's image has not been helped by the occasional public outburst of 'conservative values'. Boris Johnson - Mayor of London, prospective MP and most likely successor to Cameron - used a speech as an opportunity to praise inequality, for fostering the 'valuable spur' that is the 'spirit of envy' (Watt, 2013).

As unhelpful as that statement may be to David Cameron and George Osborne in attempting to modernise their party, it does go a long way to explaining the philosophy underlying even their Tory-lite approach. That there are strivers and skivers, deserving hard workers and undeserving shirkers; that disparities in wealth are reflective of merit, so justifying pro-wealthy, anti-poor, attitudes (Coote & Lyall, 2013).

Not only is Cameron trying to sell to the country the idea that the austerity process has worked, but that it aught to be both continued and extended, in line with that narrative.

In 2015 and after, under the Conservatives, there are expected to be more terrifyingly vague and vast cuts to come (Syal, 2015). There are some vague promises about NHS funding to be covered by inspecific 'efficiency savings' (Wright & Moodley, 2015), yet that will be checked by fears at the British Medical Association (BMA) that NHS funding shortfalls will lead to the introduction of charges for medical treatment (Campbell, 2015).

The party has been wallpapering over the cracks by mimicking Lib Dem policies - like a rise in the Personal Income Tax Allowance - and committing to no rise in VAT, although that promise has been broken before (Worrall, 2015). There have even been intimations of a commitment to match the funding increase called for by the NHS (The Huffington Post UK, 2015).

But with a planned tax cut for higher-earners currently on the 40p tax rate; along with a tax cut likely on inheritance, an authoritarian turn on civil rights with requirements for companies to store certain types of data and the repeal of the Human Rights Act, while further rolling back public spending; their policies are unlikely to endear the party to anyone outside of its most hardcore supporters (BBC, 2015{2}).

Furthermore, the party has also been outflanked on its right by UKIP on Europe and immigration, with its own record tarnished by broken promises that will make any future commitments difficult to sell - even with the pledge to hold an in/out referendum on EU membership by 2017 (Grice, 2015).

With a supporter base shrinking due to defections to the Tories Far-Right cousin UKIP, and with policies unlikely to attract any but those already initiated, the most that the Conservatives have to hope for is a consolidation of their present position. The one thing that could break through the barriers, constructed out of ideology and policy, that bar their way to a majority, would be the success of their austerity narrative. If they can convince people that it has worked, and that there are long term benefits, they may just sneak into office.

---

Prospects: 34% for 273 seats (a loss of 30).*

Possible Coalition Partners: Liberal Democrats (28 Seats), Democratic Unionist Party (9), UKIP (4).

Verdict: Neither progressive, nor alternative. Progressives could only even consider them if they're convinced by the need for cuts, specifically because they don't think a portion of their earnings should be taxed and redistributed to support a range of public services - from the NHS to Welfare & Pensions.

---

Election 2015: A Shorthand Guide to the 2015 UK General Election

Welcome to our shorthand guide to the 2015 UK general election. This will also act as a master post, a hub from which you can reach our more detailed assessment of the main issues and the policies of the major parties.

• Conservative Party
• Labour Party
• Liberal Democrats
• Green Party and the Left
• UKIP and the Right
• SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Regional Parties
• Party manifesto commitments and the values behind the policies
• What history can tell us about the SNP's future role at Westminster
• Healthcare, public funding and the future of the NHS
• Economics - Austerity, Austerity Lite or an Alternative
• The European Union - is the UK's future in or out

For the first time since 1910, the UK looks like it will elect two consecutive hung parliaments. By denying the two traditional opposing parties the right to dominate, the electorate has opened the floor to a lot of new ideas, from a lot of new parties. Over the next seven days The Alternative will take a look at each of the challengers, in turn, that are hoping to get your vote on 7th May, and over the next month pick apart the big issues up for debate.

The election itself will be fought, once more, under the first-past-the-post electoral system. Voters had the chance to reject and replace the system in a Liberal Democrat backed referendum but - in a low turnout of 41%, about 19m people - the change was rejected by 68% to 32% (BBC, 2011). Voting will take place on 7th May. The votes will be counted as soon as the polls close at 10pm and the result will be announced in each constituency as soon as it is known.

After the counting, the leader of the obvious majority in the House of Commons will be called to the palace and asked to form a government. However, if there is no clear leader then negotiations will begin. There are a couple of options at that point. The first option will be a coalition government between two parties that between them is able to hold a majority. The second will be a minority government, where one of the parties - likely at this point to be Conservative or Labour - will go it alone on an issue by issue basis, with no guarantee that it will be able to pass legislation.

At present, the polls tell us that the Conservatives and Labour look to be stuck in deadlock - both holding around 270 seats, each about 50 short of a majority. With the Liberal Democrats looking unlikely to keep enough seats to tip the balance one way or another, a minority government looks at present to be most likely - for the first time in the UK since the Labour governments of Harold Wilson and James Callaghan in the 1970s. The other option would of course be a 'Grand Coalition', where the biggest parties representing the Left and Right formed a coalition with each - something not uncommon in Europe, seen from time to time in Italy and in Germany, where the present government combines the conservative CDU with the social democratic SPD. However, the historical differences between Labour and Conservative supporters would make such a deal almost impossible.

Before all that though, the parties will have to convince voters of their ideas, or - as is more often the case - defend their record.

David Cameron, with so many challengers waiting in the wings to contest his leadership, needs nothing less than to secure a majority for the Conservatives. Achieving that will depend, firstly, upon having convinced the public that austerity was absolutely necessary, and that, secondly, it will produce a competitive advantage in the long run that will be generally beneficial.

On 7th May, the electorate will also pass judgement on the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, and on coalition government in general. The answer to that question will not come from the success or failure of Cameron, but rather from Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems. Whether or not the decision to enter coalition has been accepted by voters will be seen in how much support, and how many seats, the Lib Dems are able to retain - likely regardless of the policies they put forward.

Ed Miliband, meanwhile, has found himself having to answer to the legacy of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Labour's results under his leadership will go some way to showing us if his party has managed to shake off the disaffection that saw Labour finally lose its majority in 2010, after thirteen years in office. Votes for Labour will also likely reflect a rejection of Cameron's policies - even if Labour have largely ruled out ending austerity (Whitaker, 2014).

These three, the traditional British parties, will this time be facing some new challengers who have a real chance to upset the established order. UKIP and the Greens, representing the Far-Right and Far-Left respectively, are both polling over 5% for the first time at a general election - making that five parties over 5% in England alone - and Scotland looks sure to be swept by the SNP, so comprehensively as to make them the new third party overall in the UK.

But the only reason any of this will matter is if you vote. Not voting is, as Nick Clegg put it on The Last Leg:

"It's like going to Nando's and asking someone else to put in your order, and then you get something you don't want. If you don't vote, you'll get a kind of government you don't want. So get stuck in there and vote."

If you want change, then you need to vote. Plain and simple. Not voting just leaves others to make big decisions for you, about your life, on your behalf. What will not be simple is figuring out who to vote for to get the change you want. Over the next week The Alternative will post a guide to each of the main parties competing in 2015, and over the next month on the NHS, the Economy and the European Union, filled with links to references, to help you make your choice on 7th May.

Election 2015: Seven-way debate sees the Left outnumber the Right to talk about ideals, fairness and being open to the world

Before tonight's ITV leader's debate began, the focus had been steadily upon David Cameron and Ed Miliband (Battersby, 2015; Hawkins, 2015). There are obvious reasons why. Polling continues to suggest either the Conservatives or Labour will be the biggest party come May - and that it will be close however the ballot papers eventually stack.

But the debate itself reflected the other thing that the polls have been saying: British politics has fragmented. There are now five parties that compete across the whole of Britain and are polling over 5%, and two regional parties with a large and growing presence within two of Britain's countries. For those smaller parties it was always going to be a major boost just to be invited to the show (Robinson, 2015).

Yet they did so much more. Natalie Bennett of the Green Party and Leanne Wood of Plaid Cymru talked about ideals like freedom of movement. Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP spoke of ending austerity. Nick Clegg joined in, on behalf of the Liberal Democrats, to challenge Farage over the need to be open hearted and fair.

Despite Farage's best obsessive anti-European efforts, he was repeatedly overshadowed by the three female leaders of the SNP, Plaid and the Greens. Their anti-austerity message and language of hope frequently stole his thunder and ensured that the Left outnumbered the Right in every round of the debate. Whenever he tried to push the anti-immigration and anti-EU agenda, there was a voice - as there has been far too infrequently in recent years - to speak of being Pro-European as being open to the world, positive and fair in how we treat other people.

The reality is that TV debates have been shown not to play a particularly useful role in analysing the ideas of the different parties (Cooper, 2015). But what this debate has done is to provide people with reassurance that there are other alternatives out there. There are different narratives to the mainstream idea of fiscal austerity. There is a will to be open and co-operate, rather just compete and alienate. As Natalie Bennett put it:

"If you want change, you have to vote for it. You don't have to vote for the lesser of two evils.