Elezioni Italiane 2013 - The Fallout

This is part three in a three part series covering the story behind, the campaign, and fallout from the 2013 Italian general election...

In the final run up to the 2013 Italian general election, with a polling blackout in effect, speculation found itself accompanied by plenty of controversy - and most of it surrounded signor Silvio Berlusconi. Yet, by the end of Monday night, even signor Berlusconi would find himself upstaged.

As polls officially opened for voting over Sunday and Monday, former premier signor Berlusconi was faced with accusations alleging he had broken the rules by campaigning past the deadline (BBC, 2013), and was confronted by topless feminist protesters at a polling station in Milan (The Guardian, 2013).

The exit polls, taken as voters leave polling stations, initially suggested a relatively comfortable victory was in store for signor Pier Luigi Bersani's centre-left 'Italia. Bene Comune' coalition. However, the first official data releases suggested that signor Berlusconi's centre-right group had in fact closed the gap completely, setting up a narrow race for both the senate and the house (Hooper & Davies, 2013).

As the results trickled in, it slowly became clear that the outcome would be inconclusive.

No group had been able to establish complete control of the Italian parliament: signor Bersani's Partito Democratico secured a majority in the lower house, and signor Berlusconi's campaign, that had dominated media coverage, had only managed to snatch the centre-right Il Popolo della Liberta enough seats to deny signor Bersani control of the senate.

However, the real surprise was this battle being eclipsed by the party in third place - though the second largest independent party in parliament - the Movimento 5 Stelle, led by signor Beppe Grillo. The group had pushed an anti-establishment politics that gathered steam throughout the campaign and were looking sure to pass the outgoing premier signor Mario Monti for third place.

Yet when the dust settled, the party, more familiar to rallies on Italian piazzas, had outmatched even the most favourable estimates to secure 26% of the popular vote for the house and 24% for the senate.

With the peculiarities of the Italian electoral system helping only to create a stalemate - the centre-left majority in the house being insufficient to form a stable government, since the senate carries the same powers but is beyond their control and so able to block any action taken;

...and with signor Monti's group, potential allies to the centre-left, unable to secure more than 11% and a very few seats - though the former premier himself is said to be satisfied with the result (La Repubblica, 2013);

...the power over the forming of a stable government rests in the hands of signor Grillo's group: the champions of anti-establishment politics now find themselves to be the kingmakers in the heart of parliament.

Fears are now apparent of stalemate, indecision, rising debt and repeat elections - that this election has merely produced an unworkable stalemate that will create more yet instability and another election in just a few short months (Hewitt, 2013).

So now the work starts - first of all to pick apart this result. What can be stressed with most certainty is that the electorate offered a profound no vote. No to what is seen as EU imposed austerity has, as shown by the the strength of both Il Popolo della Liberta (anti-tax and anti-austerity) and Movimento 5 Stelle (anti-austerity and anti-establishment) in this new parliament and the poor turnout for signor Monti, and no to the establishment.

But there has also been no alternative accepted. The people have said no to the establishment and no to austerity, but not enough were convinced by the moderate alternatives proposed by signor Bersani and the Partito Democratico.

In a frantic, populist charge, signor Grillo's Movimento 5 Stelle have broken into the Italian political system and found themselves right in the middle of matters. In the coming days and weeks its newly elected members will play a key role in finding a resolution to the present stalemate - something that some analysts see as far from impossible (Lees, 2013). If they can navigate through that, then they will find themselves in a key role to shape a new alternative to present to the people of Italy, to the people of Europe and to the financial markets jittering around the world.

Populism stole the show on Monday night. But getting that foot in the door was only half of the job. Now comes the long, hard, and unpopular push for reform.

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References:
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+ BBC's 'Italy votes in election seen as key for economic recovery'; 24 February 2013.

+ The Guardian's 'Topless Femen activists attempt to confront Silvio Berlusconi as he votes in Italian elections - video'; 24 February 2013.

+ John Hooper & Lizzy Davies' 'Italy election neck-and-neck between Berlusconi's right and Bersani's left'; in The Guardian; 25 February 2013.

+ Results rundown from La Repubblica: for the Senate and the House...
...and also, on Wikipedia.

+ La Repubblica's 'Elezioni 2013, Monti: "Sono soddisfatto"'; 25 February 2013.

+ Gavin Hewitt's 'Analysis'; in BBC's 'Italy election: Results point to impasse'; 25 February 2013.

+ Kevin Lees' 'Where Italy goes from today’s elections: a look at four potential outcomes'; on Suffragio.org; 25 February 2013.

Elezioni italiane 2013 - The Campaign

Last week's article brought us up to date with the background to the 2013 Italian general election. This week's issue will discuss the players in that election and the key themes of the campaign, not least the impact of personalities upon Italian politics.

Italy's political parties in this election are competing over the national response to its financial ailments. The result of that race will also likely reflect how the people of Europe want to respond to the greater European crisis. The French electorate recently reacted by voting Socialist and rejecting the present European conservative orthodox  (Chrisafis, 2012). And up until around December 2012, polling seemed to be suggesting that, after the resignation of signor Silvio Berlusconi's government just over a year ago, his progressive opponents were on track to form a new government after the 2013 elections.

However the return of Sig. Berlusconi - who announced his intention to run for premier once more despite facing a barrage of accusations and court cases (Escobales, 2012) - has deeply affected the polls, boosting the flagging support for the main centre-right coalition.

Sig. Berlusconi's party, Il Popolo della Liberta, forms the core of the centre right coalition - which so far has focused its attention on populist taxation issues: promising to abolish several unpopular taxes and even to refund some previous payments (Davies, 2013). Il Popolo della Liberta had supported Sig. Monti's technical government until it attempted to pass its budget, when it withdrew support - seemingly to not be associated with the cuts that the budget recommended. This seems likely to be a key part of their campaign, with the party issuing statements via twitter (2013):

'It's madness to impose the rules of austerity on an economy that is developing. That's how you end up in a recession.'

However, Sig. Berlusconi's main focus has been on self-promotion. He has made a large number of television and public appearances, making disparaging remarks about opponents and even doing imitations of them (Kingston, 2013).

Sig. Berlusconi's leading contender is the more reserved signor Pier Luigi Bersani. His Partito Democratico, the Democratic Party, are the main group of centrists and progressives, formed by a union of several parties that had previously joined in with the coalitions 'L'Ulivo' and 'L'Unione' under the leadership of former Italian Premier and former President of the European Commission signor Romano Prodi. In 2013 they lead the centre-left coalition 'Italia. Bene Comune', 'Italy. Common Good'.

The Democrat's leader, Sig. Bersani, won the nomination for leadership of the coaliton in 2012 and is expected to favour his party backing reform as the way to foster Italy's economic recovery, such as those reforms he encouraged as part of Sig. Prodi's government of 2006 (Kingston, 2013). However, co-operation with Sig. Monti and the cuts agenda is not a far-fetched possibility, especially if the election is close. Sig. Bersani told CNBC (2012):

"We will surely comply with our commitments to Europe, but we will try, together with the other progressive parties, to improve European policy because we're not convinced that austerity alone is enough.

These measures are necessary but they must be coupled with other policies that better favor growth... Europe needs to provide margins of investment to boost jobs and cushion the effects of the recession. Something to that effect can be done and must be done also in Italy, because if we don't fight the recession, we will not be able to balance our public finances."

Sig. Bersani has stressed that victory for his party is important, that Italy is in need of good government run and established the right way. But to do so, they cannot 'win at any price', and that they cannot allow themselves to 'win by telling fairy stories' (BBC, 2012). His unwillingness to be drawn into the personality game is an admirable attempt at winning the right way, but it may hurt the chances of a centre-left victory as polling suggests that Sig. Berlusconi's return alone has boosted support for the centre-right.

A factor that makes a centre-left victory even more difficult to achieve is the decision of current Premier, signor Mario Monti, to seek a mandate at the election at the head his own coalition, 'Con Monti per l'Italia' (BBC, 2013). He will likely use that mandate to continue representing the European, fiscal conservative orthodox. That will mean the continuation of cuts to government spending, with tax revenues and reforms focussed on paying down and reducing the burden of debt. However, despite bringing some stability to Italian politics (Reuben, 2012), his polling figures remain low, making it likely that his group will only play the role of a third party - acting as the kingmaker in the event of there being no majority.

The other spanner in the works, particularly for attempts at an election prediction, will be the populist Movimento 5 Stelle, Five Star Movement, led by comedian and blogger signor Beppe Grillo, which has harnessed internet activism and public rallies to push a particularly anti-politics message (Hooper, 2013).

However, despite the intrigue generated by Grillo's group, the main question surrounding this personality driven movement seems to be, how will they use their seats if the election reaches a close finish?

And that close finish has been looking increasingly likely as personality has become a factor in the election campaign.

That rise in the importance of personality in the campaign has drawn Sig. Bersani into his most outspoken criticism. The Democrat leader stressed that the use of personalities in politics is at the root of many of the problems facing political debate, describing them as mechanisms that 'create rigidity and instability' (euronews, 2013).

The comment came in response to Sig. Berlusconi's return and Sig. Monti's decision to run under a Coalition called 'With Monti for Italy' - and is one of the most important points raised so far in the election campaign.

Italy's election of 2013 is set to be an ideological battleground, where much of the groundwork can be laid for not just Italy's, but also Europe's economic future. But it would be so easy for that to be lost under a barrage of personality and populism - offering people what they want to hear, playing to sentiments and never really addressing how to deal with the very real problems Italy faces.

We need to rise above personality and sentiment if we are to remain vigilant - aware of our own biases, and of what we want; aware of what we are being offered, and of what others want; and to remain aware of what is possible, and of how we might best solve our problems and achieve our wants in the long-term as well as the short-term. We must remain ever vigilant against the smiling face offering of the advantage now, in return for, or at the expense of, our future.

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References:
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+ Angelique Chrisafis' 'François Hollande wins French presidential election'; in The Guardian; 6 May 2012.

+ Roxanne Escobales' 'Silvio Berlusconi confirms he will run - again - to be Italy's prime minister'; in The Guardian; 8 December 2012.

+ Lizzy Davies' 'Silvio Berlusconi accused of "dangerous propaganda" over Italy tax cut vow'; in The Guardian; 3 February 2013.

+ @ilpdl, Popolo della Liberta official twitter; 13:16, 18 February 2013.

'@ilpdl #Berlusconi: È follia imporre ad un'economia non in sviluppo le regole dell'austerità. Così si finisce in recessione #ConfindustriaMonza' (Translation: '@ilpdl #Berlusconi: It's madness to impose the rules of austerity on an economy that is developing. That's how you end up in a recession').

+ Tom Kingston's 'Sober, folksy and not a fan of bunga bunga: Italy's "quiet man" Bersani holds key to country's future'; in The Guardian; 17 February 2013.

+ Carolin Roth & Antonia van de Velde's 'Bersani to Italy, Markets: I Get It on Reform'; on CNBC; 11 December 2012.

+ BBC's 'Profile: Pier Luigi Bersani, Italy's centre-left leader'; 3 December 2012.

+ BBC's 'Italy's Monti opens election campaign with tax pledge'; 2 January 2013.

+ Anthony Reuben's 'Has Mario Monti done a good job?'; on the BBC; 21 December 2012.

+ John Hooper's 'Beppe Grillo: populist who could throw Italy into turmoil at general election'; in The Guardian; 11 February 2013.

+ euronews' 'Party leader blasts personality politics ahead of Italy election'; 8 January 2013.

Elezioni italiane 2013 - The Background

When signor Mario Monti accepted the task of heading up a technical government to tackle Italy's economic crisis, he committed to resigning when the emergency measures were completed and the situation stabilised (BBC, 2012). While it may be a bit early to tell whether Italy's economy has been successfully stabilised, Sig. Monti has kept his word and resigned, meaning that democratic elections are imminent in Italy, with voting taking place on the 24th and 25th of February.

This is serious news for Europe - and affects all; whether they are in the European Union, the Eurozone, or not.

First of all it means that the debate is back on as to how we solve the economic crisis. We have seen conservatives, backing cuts to public spending, sweep European elections since the economic crisis set in. Yet in the past year, social democrats backing more measured responses have found some success: the Democrats retained the US presidency (Cavna, 2012) and the Socialists found success in the French elections (Chrisafis, 2012). Italy presents an interesting marker; will the conservative trend continue, or will the specific rejection of cuts by the French electorate signal a general change in the wind?

The second issue, is how this decision will affect attempts to tackle both Italy's, and Europe's, debt and deficit. Italy's debts are a significant contributor to Europe's ongoing financial troubles. Its debts, as of 2011, were the second highest contributor to the general total of European debt, and were the second highest debts as a percentage of GDP in the EU, at 126% (Rogers & Wearden, 2012; Eurostat, 2012).

Sig. Monti was appointed by President Giorgio Napolitano to arrest control of the situation when the government of former Premier Silvio Berlusconi resigned with the country mired in financial crisis, and Sig. Berlusconi himself facing a number of personal accusations (BBC, 2011). Sig. Monti and his government did manage to get control of the situation - at least to a degree.

Italy's borrowing costs were brought under control, and the laborious process of structural reforms began, aimed at reducing the weight of government spending (Reuben, 2012). However, much was left undone when the passage of a budget was followed by the largest party in the Italian Parliament, Sig. Berlusconi's own 'Il Popolo della Liberta', refusing to give further support (BBC, 2012).

With the economic situation beginning to calm in Italy, the announcement of an election is causing a few concerns (Traynor & Hooper, 2012). And those fears have not been eased by Sig. Berlusconi's announcement that he is running for Premier once more - he has already been accused of being irresponsible for offering tax cuts described as 'dangerous electoral propaganda' (Davies, 2013).

Sig. Monti's most important contribution as Premier has been described as restoring Italy's international credibility (The Economist, 2012) - and now the belief is that an elected government has to be found to take the next step. And whichever candidate the Italian electorate back, they will have a profound impact on the people of Europe.

The election of a credible candidate, with a real and demonstrable plan to resolve Italy's economic woes, will benefit every country that trades with Europe. The stability offered by a solid, clear response will calm the fears of lenders and investors, and provide a much needed boost to market confidence - something that is sorely needed to encourage small businesses and employers to take on or retain staff.

But, and just as important, it is imperative that a credible candidate appears that can recover the confidence of the electorate and offer a response. Not just for Italy, but for Europe and its trading partners, that response has to overcome the symptoms of the economic crisis - high unemployment and struggling welfare systems. The credible candidate needs a plan that ensures the cost of economic recovery is not a human one.

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References:
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+ BBC's 'Italy's Mario Monti resigns, as MPs pass budget'; 21 December 2012.

+ Michael Cavna's '"OBAMA WINS" CARTOONS: Artists draw upon the heat of the election'; The Washington Post; 7 November 2012.

+ Angelique Chrisafis' 'François Hollande wins French presidential election'; in The Guardian; 6 May 2012.

+ Simon Rogers & Graeme Wearden's 'Europe government's debts: how much do they owe?'; in The Guardian; 6 February 2012.

+ Eurostat's 'Second quarter of 2012 compared with first quarter of 2012, Euro area government debt up to 90.0% of GDP, EU27 debt up to 84.9%'; 24 October 2012.

+ BBC's 'Italy crisis: Silvio Berlusconi resigns as PM'; 13 November 2011.

+ Anthony Reuben's 'Has Mario Monti done a good job?'; on the BBC; 21 December 2012.

+ John Hooper & Ian Traynor's 'Monti resignation announcement causes fears of renewed euro turbulence'; in The Guardian; 10 December 2012.

+ Lizzy Davies' 'Silvio Berlusconi accused of "dangerous propaganda" over Italy tax cut vow'; in The Guardian; 3 February 2013.

+ The Economist's 'Monti's medicine'; 8 December 2012.

Heroes, Villains and Protectors

Pop culture is filled with heroes. It is bursting with guardians. But are these characters good for us?

Tolkien's Aragorn and Christopher Nolan's Batman - these are protectors - born to privilige and moved to self-sacrificing duty by something akin to noblesse oblige.

In Max Brooks' World War Z, he uses The UK's Queen as an example of this. His character David Allen Forbes compares the Queen, who acts with the required self-sacrificing courage during the Zombie War, to the ancient castles that the British people resurrect for everyday use:

'Their task, their mandate, is to personify all that is great in our national spirit. They must forever be an example to the rest of us, the strongest, and bravest, and absolute best of us. In a sense, it is they who are ruled by us, instead of the other way around, and they must sacrifice everything, everything, to shoulder the weight of this godlike burden. Otherwise what's the flipping point? Just scrap the whole damn tradition, roll out the bloody guillotine, and be done with it altogether. They were viewed very much like castles, I suppose: as crumbling, obsolete relics, with no real modern function other than as tourist attractions. But when the skies darkened and the nation called, both reawoke to the meaning of their existence. One shielded our bodies, the other, our souls.'

The trouble with these kinds of shields is dependence. These singular individuals, like the Dictators who protected Rome during desperate days, helps us to weather hard times... but what then? Harvey Dent, in Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight, describes Batman's fate as being to 'die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain'.

The problem of one person holding so much power, for so long, is not just the personal corruption of that individual or the immediate (and often lasting) changes to the social order. The most dangerous affect is the one it has on other individuals - dependence, from the most explicit cronyism to the most subtle shirking of personal responsibilities for the consequences of actions, deprives people of an essential and important aspect of their freedom - to make choices rationally, considering the results and accepting the consequences.

Aragorn's ambitions in The Lord of the Rings, to reclaim his rightful throne, and defend a people and a heritage; those ambitions still cannot prevent change. Even the return of the king can only reignite or keep alive the memory of how things were, not restore them. Much like the Rings of Power, used by the Elves to preserve the world as they cherished it, the crowning of Aragorn becomes an attempt to achieve a respite from the advance of time. But when Tolkien was asked what he saw as the future for middle earth, with Aragorn's line restored, he wrote that after Aragorn's time (Tolkien, 'Letters', p. 344) 'the dynasts descended from Aragorn would become just kings and governors -- like Denethor or worse'.

And others have asked the question, Is Batman actually bad for Gotham? His funnelling of resources into hi-tech vigilantism, that might otherwise have been used to stimulate the growth and investment needed to end the poverty that creates so much of Gotham's crime (and allows its more violent parts to flourish), was even pointed out to Bruce Wayne directly in the final part of Nolan's trilogy:

'This city needs Bruce Wayne, your resources, your knowledge. It doesn't need your body, or your life. That time has passed'.

These heroes, these protectors, when they stand up on our behalf, take onto themselves our own responsibility for the world we live in. We are able to shed from ourselves the consequences of our actions, because someone else has shielded us from them - in return for power. And that is a very dangerous bargain to strike. Rational consideration for the real consequences of our actions is an essential tool in building up the skill of critical thinking. When we give it up, we give up the skills essential to maintaining vigilance against precisely those abuses of power endemic to societies that give up responsibility to somebody else.

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References:
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+ Dark Knight and the Dark Knight Rises quotes from IMDb.com
+ Max Brooks' 'World War Z: An Oral History of the Zombie War'; Duckworth, 2007.

+ JRR Tolkien's 'Letters', p.344; quote taken from Michael Martinez's 'Exploring Tolkien's Fourth Age'; merp.com; 7 January 2000.