David Cameron has already announced that this will be the last general election into which he leads the Conservative Party (BBC, 2015{1}). With the vultures circling, that announcement may be the only thing that will keep him in office and safe from being toppled by his own party - so long as the Tories win, of course.
Another failure to win a majority would likely mean a premature end not just for Cameron, but also for his attempt at modernising the Conservative Party and for the senior positions held many of his allies. A majority would at least let Cameron see out his leadership in relative peace while his challengers fight amongst themselves for the right to lead the party into 2020.
Achieving that majority will mostly depend upon two things. First, that the public has been convinced that austerity was absolutely necessary. Second, that any future economic upsurge will - even if only in the form of trickle-down - be to some general benefit.
And that is going to be a hard sell.
Indications are that the attempt at modernising the Conservative Party - at least on the surface - has failed to rebrand the party in the eyes of the public. The party is still seen as the friend of the super-rich tax-dodger and uncaring about the public services upon which ordinary people rely (Tall, 2015).
It is not without good reason that this is the party's image.
Taking away the Liberal Democrat influence that brought about policies like the increase in the Personal Tax Allowance and the Pupil Premium, and restrained the worst Tory excesses, the Conservative government record has been dominated by two main themes: attacks upon welfare for the poorest and tax cuts benefiting the wealthiest (Eaton, 2014).
On welfare the party has been on the receiving end of stinging criticism. The Conservative cuts agenda has been criticised for having state support networks for the poorest and most vulnerable as its main target (Ryan, 2015). Its workfare programme was challenged in the courts (Malik, 2015). Its attempt to make cuts to housing benefit has been roundly condemned as a bedroom tax on the poorest (Butler, 2014).
The impact of these policies on the party's image has not been helped by the occasional public outburst of 'conservative values'. Boris Johnson - Mayor of London, prospective MP and most likely successor to Cameron - used a speech as an opportunity to praise inequality, for fostering the 'valuable spur' that is the 'spirit of envy' (Watt, 2013).
As unhelpful as that statement may be to David Cameron and George Osborne in attempting to modernise their party, it does go a long way to explaining the philosophy underlying even their Tory-lite approach. That there are strivers and skivers, deserving hard workers and undeserving shirkers; that disparities in wealth are reflective of merit, so justifying pro-wealthy, anti-poor, attitudes (Coote & Lyall, 2013).
Not only is Cameron trying to sell to the country the idea that the austerity process has worked, but that it aught to be both continued and extended, in line with that narrative.
In 2015 and after, under the Conservatives, there are expected to be more terrifyingly vague and vast cuts to come (Syal, 2015). There are some vague promises about NHS funding to be covered by inspecific 'efficiency savings' (Wright & Moodley, 2015), yet that will be checked by fears at the British Medical Association (BMA) that NHS funding shortfalls will lead to the introduction of charges for medical treatment (Campbell, 2015).
The party has been wallpapering over the cracks by mimicking Lib Dem policies - like a rise in the Personal Income Tax Allowance - and committing to no rise in VAT, although that promise has been broken before (Worrall, 2015). There have even been intimations of a commitment to match the funding increase called for by the NHS (The Huffington Post UK, 2015).
But with a planned tax cut for higher-earners currently on the 40p tax rate; along with a tax cut likely on inheritance, an authoritarian turn on civil rights with requirements for companies to store certain
types of data and the repeal of the Human Rights Act, while further rolling back public spending; their policies are unlikely to endear the party to anyone outside of its most hardcore supporters (BBC, 2015{2}).
Furthermore, the party has also been outflanked on its right by UKIP on Europe and immigration, with its own record tarnished by broken promises that will make any future commitments difficult to sell - even with the pledge to hold an in/out referendum on EU membership by 2017 (Grice, 2015).
With a supporter base shrinking due to defections to the Tories Far-Right cousin UKIP, and with policies unlikely to attract any but those already initiated, the most that the Conservatives have to hope for is a consolidation of their present position. The one thing that could break through the barriers, constructed out of ideology and policy, that bar their way to a majority, would be the success of their austerity narrative. If they can convince people that it has worked, and that there are long term benefits, they may just sneak into office.
Prospects: 34% for 273 seats (a loss of 30).*
Possible Coalition Partners: Liberal Democrats (28 Seats), Democratic Unionist Party (9), UKIP (4).
Verdict: Neither progressive, nor alternative. Progressives could only even consider them if they're convinced by the need for cuts, specifically because they don't think a portion of their earnings should be taxed and redistributed to support a range of public services - from the NHS to Welfare & Pensions.
References
Conservative Party website; in lieu of a yet-to-be-published manifesto.
'Policy guide: Where the parties stand'; on the BBC.
'David Cameron 'won't serve third term' if re-elected'; on the BBC; 24 March 2015{1}.
'Manifesto watch: Where parties stand on key issues'; on the BBC; 25 February 2015{2}.
Stephen Tall's 'Some farewell advice'; on Conservative Home; 24 February 2015.
George Eaton's 'Balls puts the Tories on the spot over tax cuts for the rich'; in The New Statesman; 30 July 2014.
Frances Ryan's 'Inflicting suffering on those in need is now at the heart of our benefits system'; in The Guardian; 10 March 2015.
Shiv Malik's 'Poundland ruling 'blows big hole' through government work schemes'; in The Guardian; 12 February 2013.
Patrick Butler's 'Bedroom tax: the Coalition's welfare Achilles' heel'; in The Guardian; 5 September 2014.
Nicholas Watt's 'Boris Johnson invokes Thatcher spirit with greed is good speech'; in The Guardian; 27 November 2013.
Anna Coote & Sarah Lyall's 'Strivers v skivers: real life's not like that at all'; in The Guardian; 11 April 2013.
Rajeev Syal's 'Tories may not reveal details of £12bn welfare cuts until after election'; in The Guardian; 29 March 2015.
Oliver Wright & Kiran Moodley's 'General Election 2015: Everything you need to know about the NHS'; in The Independent; 20 February 2015.
Denis Campbell's 'Basic NHS services could be charged for after general election, BMA chief says'; in The Guardian; 3 April 2015.
Patrick Worrall's 'FactCheck: David Cameron’s broken promises'; on Channel 4 FactCheck; 17 March 2015.
'Conservatives Promise To Spend Extra £8 Billion On NHS If They Win The General Election'; in The Huffington Post UK; 29 March 2015.
Andrew Grice's 'David Cameron immigration pledge 'failed spectacularly' as figures show net migration almost three times as high as Tories promised'; in The Independent; 26 February 2015.
*based on Guardian Poll Projection, 6 April 2015.
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