This is part three in a three part series covering the story behind, the campaign, and fallout from the 2013 Italian general election...
In the final run up to the 2013 Italian general election, with a polling blackout in effect, speculation found itself accompanied by plenty of controversy - and most of it surrounded signor Silvio Berlusconi. Yet, by the end of Monday night, even signor Berlusconi would find himself upstaged.
As polls officially opened for voting over Sunday and Monday, former premier signor Berlusconi was faced with accusations alleging he had broken the rules by campaigning past the deadline (BBC, 2013), and was confronted by topless feminist protesters at a polling station in Milan (The Guardian, 2013).
The exit polls, taken as voters leave polling stations, initially suggested a relatively comfortable victory was in store for signor Pier Luigi Bersani's centre-left 'Italia. Bene Comune' coalition. However, the first official data releases suggested that signor Berlusconi's centre-right group had in fact closed the gap completely, setting up a narrow race for both the senate and the house (Hooper & Davies, 2013).
As the results trickled in, it slowly became clear that the outcome would be inconclusive.
No group had been able to establish complete control of the Italian parliament: signor Bersani's Partito Democratico secured a majority in the lower house, and signor Berlusconi's campaign, that had dominated media coverage, had only managed to snatch the centre-right Il Popolo della Liberta enough seats to deny signor Bersani control of the senate.
However, the real surprise was this battle being eclipsed by the party in third place - though the second largest independent party in parliament - the Movimento 5 Stelle, led by signor Beppe Grillo. The group had pushed an anti-establishment politics that gathered steam throughout the campaign and were looking sure to pass the outgoing premier signor Mario Monti for third place.
Yet when the dust settled, the party, more familiar to rallies on Italian piazzas, had outmatched even the most favourable estimates to secure 26% of the popular vote for the house and 24% for the senate.
With the peculiarities of the Italian electoral system helping only to create a stalemate - the centre-left majority in the house being insufficient to form a stable government, since the senate carries the same powers but is beyond their control and so able to block any action taken;
...and with signor Monti's group, potential allies to the centre-left, unable to secure more than 11% and a very few seats - though the former premier himself is said to be satisfied with the result (La Repubblica, 2013);
...the power over the forming of a stable government rests in the hands of signor Grillo's group: the champions of anti-establishment politics now find themselves to be the kingmakers in the heart of parliament.
Fears are now apparent of stalemate, indecision, rising debt and repeat elections - that this election has merely produced an unworkable stalemate that will create more yet instability and another election in just a few short months (Hewitt, 2013).
So now the work starts - first of all to pick apart this result. What can be stressed with most certainty is that the electorate offered a profound no vote. No to what is seen as EU imposed austerity has, as shown by the the strength of both Il Popolo della Liberta (anti-tax and anti-austerity) and Movimento 5 Stelle (anti-austerity and anti-establishment) in this new parliament and the poor turnout for signor Monti, and no to the establishment.
But there has also been no alternative accepted. The people have said no to the establishment and no to austerity, but not enough were convinced by the moderate alternatives proposed by signor Bersani and the Partito Democratico.
In a frantic, populist charge, signor Grillo's Movimento 5 Stelle have broken into the Italian political system and found themselves right in the middle of matters. In the coming days and weeks its newly elected members will play a key role in finding a resolution to the present stalemate - something that some analysts see as far from impossible (Lees, 2013). If they can navigate through that, then they will find themselves in a key role to shape a new alternative to present to the people of Italy, to the people of Europe and to the financial markets jittering around the world.
Populism stole the show on Monday night. But getting that foot in the door was only half of the job. Now comes the long, hard, and unpopular push for reform.
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References:==========
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+ BBC's 'Italy votes in election seen as key for economic recovery'; 24 February 2013.
+ The Guardian's 'Topless Femen activists attempt to confront Silvio Berlusconi as he votes in Italian elections - video'; 24 February 2013.
+ John Hooper & Lizzy Davies' 'Italy election neck-and-neck between Berlusconi's right and Bersani's left'; in The Guardian; 25 February 2013.
+ Results rundown from La Repubblica: for the Senate and the House...
...and also, on Wikipedia.
+ La Repubblica's 'Elezioni 2013, Monti: "Sono soddisfatto"'; 25 February 2013.
+ Gavin Hewitt's 'Analysis'; in BBC's 'Italy election: Results point to impasse'; 25 February 2013.
+ Kevin Lees' 'Where Italy goes from today’s elections: a look at four potential outcomes'; on Suffragio.org; 25 February 2013.
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