Italy's political parties in this election are competing over the national response to its financial ailments. The result of that race will also likely reflect how the people of Europe want to respond to the greater European crisis. The French electorate recently reacted by voting Socialist and rejecting the present European conservative orthodox (Chrisafis, 2012). And up until around December 2012, polling seemed to be suggesting that, after the resignation of signor Silvio Berlusconi's government just over a year ago, his progressive opponents were on track to form a new government after the 2013 elections.
However the return of Sig. Berlusconi - who announced his intention to run for premier once more despite facing a barrage of accusations and court cases (Escobales, 2012) - has deeply affected the polls, boosting the flagging support for the main centre-right coalition.
Sig. Berlusconi's party, Il Popolo della Liberta, forms the core of the centre right coalition - which so far has focused its attention on populist taxation issues: promising to abolish several unpopular taxes and even to refund some previous payments (Davies, 2013). Il Popolo della Liberta had supported Sig. Monti's technical government until it attempted to pass its budget, when it withdrew support - seemingly to not be associated with the cuts that the budget recommended. This seems likely to be a key part of their campaign, with the party issuing statements via twitter (2013):
'It's madness to impose the rules of austerity on an economy that is developing. That's how you end up in a recession.'However, Sig. Berlusconi's main focus has been on self-promotion. He has made a large number of television and public appearances, making disparaging remarks about opponents and even doing imitations of them (Kingston, 2013).
Sig. Berlusconi's leading contender is the more reserved signor Pier Luigi Bersani. His Partito Democratico, the Democratic Party, are the main group of centrists and progressives, formed by a union of several parties that had previously joined in with the coalitions 'L'Ulivo' and 'L'Unione' under the leadership of former Italian Premier and former President of the European Commission signor Romano Prodi. In 2013 they lead the centre-left coalition 'Italia. Bene Comune', 'Italy. Common Good'.
The Democrat's leader, Sig. Bersani, won the nomination for leadership of the coaliton in 2012 and is expected to favour his party backing reform as the way to foster Italy's economic recovery, such as those reforms he encouraged as part of Sig. Prodi's government of 2006 (Kingston, 2013). However, co-operation with Sig. Monti and the cuts agenda is not a far-fetched possibility, especially if the election is close. Sig. Bersani told CNBC (2012):
"We will surely comply with our commitments to Europe, but we will try, together with the other progressive parties, to improve European policy because we're not convinced that austerity alone is enough.Sig. Bersani has stressed that victory for his party is important, that Italy is in need of good government run and established the right way. But to do so, they cannot 'win at any price', and that they cannot allow themselves to 'win by telling fairy stories' (BBC, 2012). His unwillingness to be drawn into the personality game is an admirable attempt at winning the right way, but it may hurt the chances of a centre-left victory as polling suggests that Sig. Berlusconi's return alone has boosted support for the centre-right.
These measures are necessary but they must be coupled with other policies that better favor growth... Europe needs to provide margins of investment to boost jobs and cushion the effects of the recession. Something to that effect can be done and must be done also in Italy, because if we don't fight the recession, we will not be able to balance our public finances."
A factor that makes a centre-left victory even more difficult to achieve is the decision of current Premier, signor Mario Monti, to seek a mandate at the election at the head his own coalition, 'Con Monti per l'Italia' (BBC, 2013). He will likely use that mandate to continue representing the European, fiscal conservative orthodox. That will mean the continuation of cuts to government spending, with tax revenues and reforms focussed on paying down and reducing the burden of debt. However, despite bringing some stability to Italian politics (Reuben, 2012), his polling figures remain low, making it likely that his group will only play the role of a third party - acting as the kingmaker in the event of there being no majority.
The other spanner in the works, particularly for attempts at an election prediction, will be the populist Movimento 5 Stelle, Five Star Movement, led by comedian and blogger signor Beppe Grillo, which has harnessed internet activism and public rallies to push a particularly anti-politics message (Hooper, 2013).
However, despite the intrigue generated by Grillo's group, the main question surrounding this personality driven movement seems to be, how will they use their seats if the election reaches a close finish?
And that close finish has been looking increasingly likely as personality has become a factor in the election campaign.
That rise in the importance of personality in the campaign has drawn Sig. Bersani into his most outspoken criticism. The Democrat leader stressed that the use of personalities in politics is at the root of many of the problems facing political debate, describing them as mechanisms that 'create rigidity and instability' (euronews, 2013).
The comment came in response to Sig. Berlusconi's return and Sig. Monti's decision to run under a Coalition called 'With Monti for Italy' - and is one of the most important points raised so far in the election campaign.
Italy's election of 2013 is set to be an ideological battleground, where much of the groundwork can be laid for not just Italy's, but also Europe's economic future. But it would be so easy for that to be lost under a barrage of personality and populism - offering people what they want to hear, playing to sentiments and never really addressing how to deal with the very real problems Italy faces.
We need to rise above personality and sentiment if we are to remain vigilant - aware of our own biases, and of what we want; aware of what we are being offered, and of what others want; and to remain aware of what is possible, and of how we might best solve our problems and achieve our wants in the long-term as well as the short-term. We must remain ever vigilant against the smiling face offering of the advantage now, in return for, or at the expense of, our future.
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References:
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+ Angelique Chrisafis' 'François Hollande wins French presidential election'; in The Guardian; 6 May 2012.
+ Roxanne Escobales' 'Silvio Berlusconi confirms he will run - again - to be Italy's prime minister'; in The Guardian; 8 December 2012.
+ Lizzy Davies' 'Silvio Berlusconi accused of "dangerous propaganda" over Italy tax cut vow'; in The Guardian; 3 February 2013.
+ @ilpdl, Popolo della Liberta official twitter; 13:16, 18 February 2013.
'@ilpdl #Berlusconi: È follia imporre ad un'economia non in sviluppo le regole dell'austerità. Così si finisce in recessione #ConfindustriaMonza' (Translation: '@ilpdl #Berlusconi: It's madness to impose the rules of austerity on an economy that is developing. That's how you end up in a recession').
+ Tom Kingston's 'Sober, folksy and not a fan of bunga bunga: Italy's "quiet man" Bersani holds key to country's future'; in The Guardian; 17 February 2013.
+ Carolin Roth & Antonia van de Velde's 'Bersani to Italy, Markets: I Get It on Reform'; on CNBC; 11 December 2012.
+ BBC's 'Profile: Pier Luigi Bersani, Italy's centre-left leader'; 3 December 2012.
+ BBC's 'Italy's Monti opens election campaign with tax pledge'; 2 January 2013.
+ Anthony Reuben's 'Has Mario Monti done a good job?'; on the BBC; 21 December 2012.
+ John Hooper's 'Beppe Grillo: populist who could throw Italy into turmoil at general election'; in The Guardian; 11 February 2013.
+ euronews' 'Party leader blasts personality politics ahead of Italy election'; 8 January 2013.
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