Budget 2017: Hammond gets a second attempt at Budget 2017, but will he act?

Photograph: NATO Summit Wales 2014 by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (License) (Cropped)

On Wednesday, Chancellor Philip Hammond will present his second Budget of 2017. It has been trailed with promises of doing more. But the big question is whether any of the measures will be enough.

Between the growth of wages being anaemic, price rises eating away at households and the private sector not stimulating any positive movement by holding back from investment, it's being argued that Hammond has cornered himself against his own fiscal rules.

The government has made big promises - or at least big announcements, with little that is tangible behind them. The governing reality has frequently been the denial of the existence of a crisis, making excuses or tinkering around the edges.

Consider the big pledges Hammond has made on housing. The Chancellor has refused much needed additional funding, so tinkering measures - such as adjusting stamp duty or loosening restrictions on councils borrowing to build homes - are expected to carry the burden of getting the government to 300,000 new homes a year.

That will mean achieving the completion of around 100,000 extra homes, each year, to reach the target. Which makes it relevant to note that this is, of course, the same pledge that hasn't been met over the last seven years - at times struggling to reach 100,000 at all, never mind an extra 100,000.

These kind of promises, made over and again only to be missed, serve to undermine future pledges to do more. So too, do gaffes like Philip Hammond's Mitt Romney -esque announcement on Sunday that there are no unemployed people (there are).

It hurts the government too, that funding is denied where it is asked for by services, but is magically pulled out of thin air to solve the latest Conservative political crisis - a billion to secure a DUP-Con deal, for example.

The denials, excuses and tinkering extend to other areas. The NHS is expected to be denied the £4 billion in extra funding it's chief has demanded and the existence of a healthcare crisis has been refused.

These attitudes, these tinkering measures, point towards Hammond's approach to the last Budget, which responded to big challenges with a 'steady as she goes' attitude, spending in the millions not the billions.

There are questions still ahead, however, and people who remain vulnerable. What tinkering will help those women, particularly young women, suffering from period poverty? How will tinkering, with cautious suggestions of reducing waiting times, deal with welfare debt traps?

Universal Credit, in the midst of a disastrous rollout, is exacerbating problems - like mounting rental arrears and the simple fact of more than a month without a means on which to live - that are entangled with all areas of life for the most vulnerable.

While the government may be more focused on avoiding any further embarrassments, of which it has had a string lately, by avoiding any backtracks and climbdowns - such as the major reversal on self-employed National Insurance changes back in the spring.

But now is not the time for 'little c' conservatism. Change will perhaps undermine the Conservative position, ever talking of the chaos Labour will unleash by deviating from their fiscal restrictions.

But the Tories failure to match their rhetoric with reality is a party affair. The wellbeing of the people has to come before the wellbeing of the party. It is time to act.

References

'Budget 2017: Plans to build 300,000 homes a year'; on the BBC; 19 November 2017.

Ben Chu's 'Here’s what to look out for in Philip Hammond’s Budget this week – and how to tell if the Government is serious or not: The big-picture macroeconomic question for the Chancellor is whether he scraps his 2 per cent structural deficit target in order to spend and borrow more'; in The Independent; 19 November 2017.

Chris Johnston's 'Budget: Hammond faces spending dilemma, says IFS'; on the BBC; 30 October 2017

Hatty Collier's 'Backlash over Theresa May's plans to build just 25,000 extra social homes over two years'; in the Evening Standard; 4 October 2017.

Patrick Collinson & Jessica Elgot's 'England's housing market is 'broken', government admits in white paper: Sajid Javid admits ownership is ‘distant dream’ for young families as he aims to encourage home building and help renters'; in The Guardian; 7 February 2017.

Kate Allen, Judith Evans & Jim Pickard's 'Sajid Javid sets out fix for ‘broken’ housing market: Proposals aim to spur councils and developers to build more quickly'; in the Financial Times; 7 February 2017.

Kevin Peachey's 'Budget 2017: Double Budget effect on your finances'; on the BBC; 17 November 2017.

'Despite facing big funding challenges, Hammond's austere Budget 2017 mostly spends in millions rather than billions'; from The Alternative, on Twitter; 8 March 2017.

Layla Moran & Paula Sherriff's 'Ending 'period poverty' among young women should be a priority in next week's Budget: One in 10 girls in the UK are unable to afford hygiene products and are missing school as a result. In a country as prosperous as Britain this is an outrage'; in The Independent; 18 November 2017.

Kate Belgrave's 'Why are we talking about student debt but not benefit debt? The state and its ‘providers’ are crushing people with debt. Rather than helping people, they own them. The problem is as urgent as student debt – and an amnesty is long overdue'; on Open Democracy; 18 September 2017.

Torsten Bell's 'Don’t feel sorry for Hammond – this is a budget of great opportunity: Our acute economic problems could be a blessing for the chancellor. If he creates a mood for consensus, he can bring the changes Britain badly needs'; in The Guardian; 20 November 2017.