There will of course be questions over the future of the coalition and the coalition agreement, in light of the shadows cast over Mr Cameron. Cooperation between the parties will be strained more-so than ever. Mr Clegg has already shown clear signs of distancing himself from the PM on this issue; with his body-language during the special debate and his words in a press conference the following morning.
Events began to draw in the PM when the campaign against the News Corp-BSkyB takeover coincided with the renewal of investigations into phone hacking, leading to the closure of the News of the World. The story raised questions of political honesty; the kind of questions Mr Cameron will certainly not have wanted to be pointed at his government.
And so Labour will keep pushing the hacking scandal issue. Experts believe this story is not going away (Robinson & Daily Politics, 2011), so the opposition will not let this story lie. Mr E Miliband acted fast and must capitalise upon the advantage he gained. If Mr Cameron is to survive he can't let his future dealings be framed by his connections to these scandals.
Once more this situation gives us the chance to look at parallels between the Conservative parties of the UK and Canada. In Canada Mr Harper was accused of impropriety during his previous terms as premier, including the proroguing crisis (Economist, 2010) and particularly the issue of obstructing parliament that led to his being found in contempt (CBC, 2011). Mr Harper nevertheless outmanouvered his opponents & critics during the ensuing election and returned to office.
The thoughts of other leaders during crises can teach Mr Cameron something as well. In the days when Churchill sat as a Liberal, he was sure to warn his party of the dangers posed by delaying reform of society. He warned of leaving conditions that would risk Liberals being swallowed up by the fresh challenger Labour (Marr, 2009). This has already happened to the Liberal Democrats in Scotland, where the SNP displaced them as Labour's left-alternative (Watt et al, 2011).
Mr Cameron has to choose his battlegrounds with the same care as Canadian Premier Mr Harper did. He will be keen to keep the image of the leader of a responsible and reforming government that he has tried to push since coming to office. In order to do, Mr Cameron needs positive policy successes, specifically for financial markets to prove that austerity was justified lest another party usurp the image he is spinning. He has bought himself time, albeit at great expense of, aptly enough, unsustainable levels of political capital. And though it does give the premier time to solidify his position, any concessions the coalition leader has to make to the Tory backbench '1922 Committee' (Maddox, 2011) or to his Lib Dem partners and House committees, may bite him hard down the line.
As for the opposition, they must tread carefully to avoid the fate of the centre-left parties in Canada (BBC, 2011). Mr Ignatieff's Liberals and Mr Duceppe's Bloc had their parliamentary numbers devastated in an election that sought to capitalise on a parliamentary scandal, but only discovered a lack of interest in those issues amongst the general public. Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Green party in particular should be very wary about risking an election. Labour have been performing very well in the polls, but even during this crisis have slipped back towards the Tories on certain polls.
The parties of the centre-left have to be ready to govern together if Mr Cameron is caught in the whirlwind of this scandal. None of them can afford to go it alone with the close polling figures or to be seen to be scoring political points on a serious issue. But the centre and left shouldn't worry. The best tool it has at its disposal right now is patience. Mr Cameron must wait out the full play of this scandal, passively ignoring each new piece of evidence, while his opponents can patiently and actively weave them into a compelling narrative.
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References:
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+ Nick Robinson's 'Phone hacking: With friends like these...'; 20 July 2011;
+ Nick Robinson on 'The Daily Politics Special'; at 1.15.40; 20 July 2011;
+ The Economist's 'Canada without Parliament: Halted in mid-debate'; January 2010;
+ CBC's 'MPs' report finds government in contempt'; 21 March 2011;
+ Andrew Marr's 'The Making of Modern Britain: From Queen Victoria to VE Day
'; MacMillan, 2009.+ Nicholas Watt, Severin Carrell & Steven Morris' 'Lib Dem support collapses across north while SNP make gains'; 6 May 2011;
+ David Maddox's 'PM's BSkyB stonewall smashed by blunder'; in The Scotsman; 21 July 2011;
+ BBC's 'Canada Liberal leader Ignatieff quits after election'; 3 May 2011;
also includes Lee Carter's 'Analysis' from BBC News Toronto;
also see:
CBC explains 'Contempt'
Parliament passes 'no-confidence' vote
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